To see Ariane 6 fly, we will have to wait again

InitiaLally, the first flight of Ariane 6, the new European rocket, should have taken place at the end of 2020. But this year not being like all the others, a first postponement was announced in the spring when the ESA (European Space Agency) factories closed for health reasons.

But according to the very well-informed Aerospatium magazine, the rocket will not take off until the second half of the year 2022. An 18-month delay on the plans set in 2017. The ESA should confirm this information in the coming days.

On the side of Ariane's presidency if no delay is reported, the health crisis which particularly affects Guyana affects the construction and installation of the Kourou launch pad. Closed for more than two months, still in slow motion since the deconfinement, Ariane Group factories in Guyana are struggling to keep pace. If Ariane 5 is the most reliable rocket in human space history, Ariane Group wants it to beenthroned by its little sister Ariane 6.

An Ariane 6 which is late and Europe which is lagging

The European company has made reliability its hobbyhorse and stands out from other companies in the new space by its very low failure rate. The Ariane 5 rocket has only experienced one failure on average every 5 years since its first launch in 1996.

But this new delay in the launch of Ariane 6 remains very bad news for the European agency which saw its lead melt like snow in the sun, in particular because of the gigantic progress of Space X in recent years. Elon Musk's company was the first to develop reusable launchers. She is now expected to play a key role in the US Artemis program, which plans to return men to the moon by 2024.

A seBooming private sector

The more general development of the private sector in the space industry is weakening Ariane Group's plans. The European company had made the deployment of geostationary satellites its priority, but the arrival of new players such as Space X and Longue Marche, the Chinese national launcher. Low-orbit space, where most satellites are launched, has become very accessible to private companies. The extremely costly development of a rocket like Ariane 6 will therefore not be able to be made profitable using only this source of income.

Where Ariane 5 had succeeded in establishing itself among heavy launchers as the absolute reference throughout the 2000s, from 2009 onwards, CNES, the French space agency, recommended that ESA develop a new launcher to adapt to market changes. If the Ariane 5 launcher retains a dominant position in the market today, Ariane 6 will almost have to start frome zero to gain market share, now acquired by Ariane 5.

But Europe wants to keep a heavy launcher and Ariane 5 has had its day. Even if Ariane 6 were to be at a loss, the launcher offers significant autonomy and independence for the European Union as the militarization of space is greater than ever. Today, the majority of Ariane rocket contracts are signed between European players. Another important point, Ariane 5 can bring hundreds of tons into orbit, which allows the deployment of several satellites at the same time, perfect missions for putting military or spy satellites into orbit.